People's Bank's latest figures released in November reached 25.459031 trillion yuan of financial institutions foreign exchange, more than in October decreased $ 27.9 billion. This is the second in October, the second consecutive month, the financial institutions to reduce foreign exchange, but also in December 2007, the biggest drop since.
negative growth in foreign exchange will make a corresponding reduction in domestic passive money supply, or the formation of market liquidity crunch in the market this year and early next year against the backdrop of strong demand for funds, the deposit reserve ratio further reduced become possible.
hot money continues to flow
foreign exchange is the acquisition of foreign assets and the corresponding central bank put the national currency, the RMB is still non-convertible currencies, after the introduction of foreign capital to be converted into RMB before entering circulation, the state in order to invest heavily in foreign currency exchange, an increase of money demand, the formation of foreign exchange. Financial institutions, including central bank foreign exchange of statistical standards, banking deposit-taking financial institutions, trust and investment companies, financial leasing companies and auto finance companies. The data can be observed by the banking system to buy foreign currency amount.
November, the central bank's own foreign exchange assets has not been announced, now still can not determine the specific changes in holding of foreign exchange. However, the October data, the central bank was a net foreign exchange holdings, other financial institutions asics kayano womens, the net increase in trend. October data show that the central bank's own holdings of net foreign assets 89.34 billion yuan, while the commercial banks and other financial institutions, foreign exchange increased by 64.448 billion yuan. Overall, in October China foreign exchange reduced net $ 24.9 billion in the last four years, the first monthly negative growth in foreign exchange.
This means that the recent addition to the central bank foreign financial institutions and enterprises more willing to hold dollars, settlement will reduce.
what causes this kind of phenomenon? In this regard, Barclays Capital, said cross-border capital flows, foreign exchange is a key indicator. . According to the Ministry of Commerce announced on 15 December, November, China actually used foreign investment (F D I) 87 .57 billion U.S. dollars, down 9.76%.
In addition, the reporter learned that, in November of RMB exchange rate is still lower than in the offshore bank exchange rate, although the extent of domestic and foreign exchange rates eased upside down, but did not appear to reverse, arbitrage funds outside the territory of purchase of foreign exchange settlement continue to guide the behavior of capital flight.
the recent spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar hit a limit position several times in succession, with the recent devaluation of the renminbi and the dollar is expected to expectations, in addition to the financial institutions and foreign central banks are more willing to hold dollar enterprise, with prevent exchange losses.
Barclays Capital believes that capital outflows might continue for some time, and this has strengthened the global financial market uncertainty, a weaker U.S. dollar and the yuan stronger demand trends.
deposit reserve ratio, or further down
market analysis, a negative growth of foreign exchange will allow a corresponding reduction in the domestic money supply passive, or the formation of market liquidity crunch, in the end of the year and the market early next year against the backdrop of strong demand for funds, the deposit reserve ratio further down is possible.
Li Ning said. In its view supra shoes online, now the opposite direction to changes in foreign exchange, the central bank to reduce the amount equal to the marginal decrease on the delivery of the base currency. This is a technical reduction, you can use technology to deal with. Therefore, short-term fluctuations in foreign exchange impact on the flow there is only psychological.
China's recent outflow of domestic capital not only for their own reasons, also consistent with the emerging market trends, such as India, Brazil and other countries are faced with the current currency depreciation. Therefore, in addition to their own economic improvement, but wait for external funds to emerging market countries to ease concerns about the uncertainty. In the two factors are resolved, the funds will be re-flows to emerging market countries.
Although the foreign exchange to reduce base money caused reduced the deposit reserve ratio will constitute a condition of the reduction, Li Ning that some seasonal factors can not be ignored, at the end of assessment, between the industry to stop dismantling, which will bring liquidity tightening addition, the flow requirements during the Spring Festival will increase liquidity pressure, reserve ratio will be lowered again.
Zhongzheng Sheng said macroeconomic analyst at Everbright Securities in November's new RMB deposits increased by only 300 billion yuan, at a historic low, negative growth in foreign exchange in November are expected. At the same time, negative growth in foreign exchange since October after the end of November, the central bank cut the deposit reserve ratio, which means that the central bank has confirmed the trend of foreign exchange continued to go down, which also put pressure on the mobility of the future.
Zhongzheng Sheng believes that the first 11 months, new credit 6.8 trillion yuan, the annual 750 million yuan target, you need to add the letter in December to reach 700 billion yuan loans, taking into account at the end of storage loans ratio and capital adequacy assessment will not relax, lower foreign exchange deposits of commercial banks will erode the basis of restricting the lending capacity of commercial banks, a commercial bank lending is still very difficult, do not rule out further before the end of the central bank cut the deposit reserve ratio .
and Wang Tao cheap ugg boots, chief China economist at UBS Securities (blog) that, due to foreign exchange inflows remain weak, may prompt the central bank cut again before the Spring Festival, the deposit reserve ratio.
Wensheng Peng, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation said it expects the market will remain open in December drained state, but the deposit reserve ratio by 400 billion yuan of funds can be released, in December this year, put the financial savings release about 980 billion yuan of funds, comprehensive view, the mobility of December will not put too low.
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